JEWISH KING JESUS IS COMING AT THE RAPTURE FOR US IN THE CLOUDS-DON'T MISS IT FOR THE WORLD.THE BIBLE TAKEN LITERALLY- WHEN THE PLAIN SENSE MAKES GOOD SENSE-SEEK NO OTHER SENSE-LEST YOU END UP IN NONSENSE.GET SAVED NOW- CALL ON JESUS TODAY.THE ONLY SAVIOR OF THE WHOLE EARTH - NO OTHER. 1 COR 15:23-JESUS THE FIRST FRUITS-CHRISTIANS RAPTURED TO JESUS-FIRST FRUITS OF THE SPIRIT-23 But every man in his own order: Christ the firstfruits; afterward they that are Christ’s at his coming.ROMANS 8:23 And not only they, but ourselves also, which have the firstfruits of the Spirit, even we ourselves groan within ourselves, waiting for the adoption, to wit, the redemption of our body.(THE PRE-TRIB RAPTURE)
HOARDING OF GOLD AND SILVER
JAMES 5:1-3
1 Go to now, ye rich men, weep and howl for your miseries that shall come upon you.
2 Your riches are corrupted, and your garments are motheaten.
3 Your gold and silver is cankered; and the rust of them shall be a witness against you, and shall eat your flesh as it were fire. Ye have heaped treasure together for the last days.
REVELATION 18:10,17,19
10 Standing afar off for the fear of her torment, saying, Alas, alas that great city Babylon, that mighty city! for in one hour is thy judgment come.(IN 1 HR THE STOCK MARKETS WORLDWIDE WILL CRASH)
17 For in one hour so great riches is come to nought. And every shipmaster, and all the company in ships, and sailors, and as many as trade by sea, stood afar off,
19 And they cast dust on their heads, and cried, weeping and wailing, saying, Alas, alas that great city, wherein were made rich all that had ships in the sea by reason of her costliness! for in one hour is she made desolate.
EZEKIEL 7:19
19 They shall cast their silver in the streets, and their gold shall be removed:(CONFISCATED) their silver and their gold shall not be able to deliver them in the day of the wrath of the LORD: they shall not satisfy their souls, neither fill their bowels: because it is the stumblingblock of their iniquity.
LUKE 2:1-3
1 And it came to pass in those days, that there went out a decree from Caesar Augustus, that all the world should be taxed.
2 (And this taxing was first made when Cyrenius was governor of Syria.)
3 And all went to be taxed, every one into his own city.
REVELATION 13:16-18
16 And he(THE FALSE POPE WHO DEFECTED FROM THE CHRISTIAN FAITH) causeth all,(IN THE WORLD ) both small and great, rich and poor, free and bond, to receive a mark in their right hand, or in their foreheads:(MICROCHIP IMPLANT)
17 And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark,(MICROCHIP IMPLANT) or the name of the beast,(WORLD DICTATORS NAME INGRAVED ON YOUR SKIN OR TATTOOED ON YOU OR IN THE MICROCHIP IMPLANT) or the number of his name.(THE NUMBERS OF HIS NAME INGRAVED IN THE MICROCHIP IMLPLANT)-(ALL THESE WILL TELL THE WORLD DICTATOR THAT YOUR WITH HIM AND AGAINST KING JESUS-GOD)
18 Here is wisdom. Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast:(WORLD LEADER) for it is the number of a man; and his number is Six hundred threescore and six.(6-6-6) A NUMBER SYSTEM (6006006)OR(60020202006)(SOME KIND OF NUMBER IMPLANTED IN THE MICROCHIP THAT TELLS THE WORLD DICTATOR AND THE NEW WORLD ORDER THAT YOU GIVE YOUR TOTAL ALLIGIENCE TO HIM AND NOT JESUS)(ITS AN ETERNAL DECISION YOU MAKE)(YOU CHOOSE YOUR OWN DESTINY)(YOU TAKE THE DICTATORS NAME OR NUMBER UNDER YOUR SKIN,YOUR DOOMED TO THE LAKE OF FIRE AND TORMENTS FOREVER,NEVER ENDING MEANT ONLY FOR SATAN AND HIS ANGELS,NOT HUMAN BEINGS).OR YOU REFUSE THE MICROCHIP IMPLANT AND GO ON THE SIDE OF KING JESUS AND RULE FOREVER WITH HIM ON EARTH.YOU CHOOSE,ITS YOUR DECISION.
REVELATION 6:5-6
5 And when he had opened the third seal, I heard the third beast say, Come and see. And I beheld, and lo a black horse; and he that sat on him had a pair of balances in his hand.
6 And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine.(A DAYS WAGES FOR A LOAF OF BREAD)
DOCTOR DOCTORIAN FROM ANGEL OF GOD
then the angel said, Financial crisis will come to Asia. I will shake the world.
The Shemitah is coming true.Do people not get it? There is a economic crash every 7 years.
1980: Recession
1987: Stock market crash
1994: Bond market crash
2001: 9/11, dot com, recession
2008: Housing crash
2015: See if something will happen-The central banks will be the death of us. Get ready and embrace yourself for the economic collapse.
UPDATE-AUGUST 31,2015-12:00AM
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Islamic State Flips Gold Coins to Break Fed `Enslavement'-Zaid Sabah Caroline Alexander-Updated on August 30, 2015 — 2:34 AM EDT-BLOOMBERG
Forget the printing press. In readying for the rollout of Islamic State’s new money, goldsmiths and silver smelters have been toiling away.The jihadist group on Saturday touted “the return of the gold dinar” in an hour-long video issued by its media wing, al Hayat. Islamic State’s policy-making Shura Council last year tasked its Beit al Mal, or treasury, with minting the coins, which come in several denominations made of gold, silver and copper.The currency is meant to break the shackles of “the capitalist financial system of enslavement, underpinned by a piece of paper called the Federal Reserve dollar note,” the group said in the video. It didn’t explain where the coins were being minted, nor how they’ll be distributed or replace currencies circulating in the territory the group occupies in parts of Iraq and Syria.Islamic State first announced its intention to issue its own money in November, five months after it seized the northern Iraqi city of Mosul and its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi announced a caliphate. The move was seen by analysts as part of the group’s efforts to build the institutions of a functioning state.The jihadists have amassed a war chest of millions of dollars, partly through collecting taxes, and by seizing oil refineries. Bank and jewelry store robberies, extortion, smuggling and kidnapping for ransom are other important sources of revenue for the group, which metes out brutal punishment to anyone who opposes its rule, including beheadings and crucifixions.-Morale Booster-Baghdad-based economist Basim Jameel said the announcement is an attempt to boost the morale of Islamic State fighters, who have suffered battlefield setbacks in recent months, including the loss of Tikrit in March.Minting the coins is relatively easy, Jameel said, as goldsmiths in Mosul imported machines from Italy in recent years, each one able to produce about 5,000 coins a day. The metals probably come from banks the group seized, ransoms, the homes of Christians and other minorities who fled, he said.In the video, Islamic State refers to Caliph Abd al Malik ibn Marwan, who introduced the first Arabic-script coinage of the Islamic empire, free of figural representation, in around 696 AD.The group said its 21-carat 1-dinar coin weighs 4.25 grams, while the 21-carat five-dinar coin weighs double that. Three dominations of silver dirhams and two of copper coins were minted for smaller transactions, it said.-Exchange Rate?-Each coin bears an inscription that reads, “The Islamic State, a caliphate based on the doctrine of prophecy.” The 1-dinar coin also shows seven stalks of wheat, which the group said is meant to represent “the blessing of spending in the path of Allah.” The five-dinar coin bears the image of a map of the world.Oil, the group said in the video, will now only be sold for gold.The Pentagon said in February that illicit oil sales are no longer the main source of funding for the group. A U.S.-led bombing campaign that began last summer reduced the number of fields under its control and several neighbors, including Turkey and Kurdistan, have cracked down on smuggling routes.Residents interviewed by phone from Mosul and Ramadi, the western Iraqi city captured by Islamic State in May, said so far they hadn’t seen any coins, received details of how the currency swap would work, or been told what the prevailing exchange rate might be. They said families have been preparing for this moment for some time.One Mosul resident, who asked not to be identified, said his family and others will exchange a certain amount of old money into the new Islamic State currency to pay household expenses. Some will keep back a portion of the old currency to exchange into dollars in areas that remain under government control, he said.Because Islamic State is classified as a terrorist group, the coins can’t be traded legally.“They’ll only be used in these areas and people will only buy these coins for their daily needs and expenses,” said the economist Jameel.“Nobody outside their control will accept the currency and I don’t know how they’ll keep up with demand, as they are losing resources day after day,” he said. “At the end of the day, this is a media propaganda tool.”
China Premier Li Says No Basis for Yuan’s Continued Depreciation-Bloomberg News-August 29, 2015 — 9:03 PM EDT
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said there was no basis for a continued depreciation of the yuan after the central bank allowed the currency to devalue 2.8 percent this month.The yuan can remain “basically” stable on a “reasonable and equilibrium level,” said Li, according to a statement posted on the State Council’s website Saturday. Li made the comments at a state council meeting on Friday.The assurances came after the central bank on Aug. 25 cut interest rates for the fifth time since November and lowered the amount of cash banks must set aside to stem the biggest stock-market rout since 1996. Deflation risks, over-capacity and a debt overhang remain a cloud over the Chinese economy, which is forecast for its slowest expansion since 1990.China will continue to carry out proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy and will use “more precise” measures to cope with downward pressure on the economy, said Li in the statement. The government will prevent regional and systematic risks, according to the statement.Policy makers want to stabilize Chinese shares before a Sept. 3 military parade celebrating the 70th anniversary of the World War II victory over Japan, two people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified because the intervention wasn’t publicly announced, said Thursday.The Shanghai Composite Index rallied 4.8 percent to 3,232.35 at Friday’s close, following a more than 5 percent surge in the final hour of trading on Thursday. The gauge is still down 37 percent from its June high.The yuan in Shanghai climbed as much as 0.33 percent on Friday, its biggest intra-day gain since March 19, before closing 0.26 percent stronger at 6.3885 per dollar.
If the Options Market Is Right, China's Stock Rescue Is Doomed-Kana Nishizawa-August 30, 2015 — 12:00 PM EDT-bloomberg
Options traders have never been so pessimistic on China’s stock market, betting the government’s renewed effort to prop up share prices is doomed to fail.The cost of bearish contracts on the China 50 exchange-traded fund surged to the highest level versus bullish ones since they started trading in Shanghai six months ago. The so-called skew also climbed to a record for a similar ETF in the U.S., even as government buying drove China’s benchmark index to a 10 percent rally in the final two days of last week.While policy makers are trying to bolster the market before President Xi Jinping takes the stage in a World War II victory parade this week, bears argue that valuations are too high for the rally to last. Chinese investors have about 5 trillion yuan ($783 billion) of borrowed money riding on stocks, and many of them are looking for a chance to exit, according to Bank of America Corp.“More and more people are not convinced about A shares,” said Tony Chu, a Hong Kong-based money manager at RS Investment Management Co., which oversees about $20 billion. “Ultimately, the government needs to reduce intervention and let more de-leveraging happen.”Puts that pay out on a 10 percent drop in the China 50 ETF cost 7 points more on Friday than calls betting on a 10 percent gain, according to implied volatility data on one-month contracts. As recently as Aug. 24, the bullish contracts were more expensive. For the U.S.-listed Deutsche X-trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF, the skew reached a record 38 points on Aug. 27 and closed the week at 28 points.Chinese policy actions last week suggest authorities are intent on putting a floor under share prices. On Tuesday, the central bank announced its fifth interest-rate cut since November and reduced the amount of cash banks must set aside for reserves. State buying on Thursday propelled the Shanghai Composite to a rally of more than 5 percent in the final hour of trading, according to people familiar with the matter, an advance that extended into a 4.8 percent gain on Friday.-‘Unstable Situation’-China’s intervention is part of a broader effort to ensure nothing detracts from the Sept. 3 parade, an event the government will use to demonstrate its rising military and political might. Authorities have also closed thousands of factories to curb pollution and ordered some vehicles off the road.For BofA strategist David Cui, equity valuations and earnings growth aren’t appealing enough to support the market in the absence of government buying.Equities on mainland bourses traded at a median of 53 times reported earnings last week. That’s the most among the 10 largest markets and more than twice the 19 multiple for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. Analysts have cut their 2015 profit estimates for Shanghai Composite companies by 8.8 percent this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.Cui is also worried about the impact of selling by leveraged investors. Margin loans tracked by Chinese exchanges have dropped by half from their June peak to about 1.1 trillion yuan, a figure that doesn’t take into account equity-backed debt extended by trust companies and other lenders.“That’s a very unstable situation,” said Cui, who estimates the Shanghai Composite needs to fall another 35 percent before shares become attractive. “The government will not support the market forever.”The $5 trillion tumble in share prices from mid-June through last Wednesday has damaged confidence so much that state buying isn’t enough to lure back investors, according to Kenny Tang, chief executive officer of Jun Yang Securities Co. in Hong Kong. It may take further cuts to borrowing costs and reserve requirements to convince funds to return, he said.The Deutsche X-trackers Harvest ETF ended last week down 6.2 percent at $32.70 in New York, extending its loss from a June record to more than 40 percent. The China 50 fund declined 4.7 percent.“The market sentiment is still quite volatile,” Tang said. “People are worried that after the rebound there will be some selling pressure.”
China Sells U.S. Treasuries to Support Yuan-Bloomberg News-Updated on August 27, 2015 — 6:11 AM EDT
China has cut its holdings of U.S. Treasuries this month to raise dollars needed to support the yuan in the wake of a shock devaluation two weeks ago, according to people familiar with the matter.Channels for such transactions include China selling directly, as well as through agents in Belgium and Switzerland, said one of the people, who declined to be identified as the information isn’t public. China has communicated with U.S. authorities about the sales, said another person. They didn’t reveal the size of the disposals.The People’s Bank of China has been offloading dollars and buying yuan to support the exchange rate, a policy that’s contributed to a $315 billion drop in its foreign-exchange reserves over the last 12 months. The $3.65 trillion stockpile will fall by some $40 billion a month in the remainder of 2015 because of the intervention, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.China selling Treasuries is “not a surprise, but possibly something which people haven’t fully priced in,” said Owen Callan, a Dublin-based fixed-income strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald LP. “It would change the outlook on Treasuries quite a bit if you started to price in a fairly large liquidation of their reserves over the next six months or so as they manage the yuan to whatever level they have in mind.”-Gross’s Tweet-The PBOC and the U.S. Embassy in Beijing didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. Bill Gross, who manages the $1.47 billion Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund, tweeted Wednesday “China selling long Treasuries ????”.Two-year Treasuries erased an earlier advance, with their yield little changed at 0.67 percent as of 11 a.m. in London. It fell as much as two basis points. The 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.15 percent, near to its average for the past month.Chinese sales of U.S. government debt may have kept yields from falling this month as a selloff in global stocks prompted investors to favor the safest assets.“By selling Treasuries to defend the renminbi, they’re preventing Treasury yields from going lower despite the fact that we’ve seen a sharp drop in the stock market,” David Woo, head of global rates and currencies research at Bank of America Corp., said on Bloomberg Television on Wednesday. “China has a direct impact on global markets through U.S. rates.”China Holdings-The latest available Treasury data and estimates by strategists suggest that China controls $1.48 trillion of U.S. government debt, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That includes about $200 billion held through Belgium, which Nomura Holdings Inc. says is home to Chinese custodial accounts.The PBOC has sold at least $106 billion of reserve assets in the last two weeks, including Treasuries, according to an estimate from Societe Generale SA. The figure was based on the bank’s calculation of how much liquidity will be added to China’s financial system through Tuesday’s reduction of interest rates and lenders’ reserve-requirement ratios. The assumption is that the central bank aims to replenish the funds it drained when it bought yuan to stabilize the currency.The yuan rose 0.08 percent to 6.4053 per dollar on Thursday in Shanghai, trimming this month’s decline to 3.1 percent. Daily fluctuations have averaged less than 0.1 percent in the past two weeks as the PBOC intervened to bring stability following the Aug. 11 devaluation. The nation’s Treasury holdings will stop falling once the intervention stops and the currency is freely floating, said Steve Wang, chief China economist at Reorient Financial Markets Ltd. in Hong Kong.“Strategically, it probably has been China’s intention to find the right time to lighten up its excessive accumulation of U.S. Treasuries,” he said.
It's Official: China Confirms It Has Begun Liquidating Treasuries, Warns Washington-Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/27/2015 23:27 -0400-Bank of America Bank of America Belgium Bill Dudley Bill Gross China fixed Housing Market Monetary Policy Nomura Quantitative Easing Renminbi Switzerland Yuan -zero hedge
On Tuesday evening, we asked what would happen if emerging markets joined China in dumping US Treasurys. For months we’ve documented the PBoC’s liquidation of its vast stack of US paper. Back in July for instance, we noted that China had dumped a record $143 billion in US Treasurys in three months via Belgium, leaving Goldman speechless for once.We followed all of this up this week by noting that thanks to the new FX regime (which, in theory anyway, should have required less intervention), China has likely sold somewhere on the order of $100 billion in US Treasurys in the past two weeks alone in open FX ops to steady the yuan. Put simply, as part of China's devaluation and subsequent attempts to contain said devaluation, China has been purging an epic amount of Treasurys.But even as the cat was out of the bag for Zero Hedge readers and even as, to mix colorful escape metaphors, the genie has been out of the bottle since mid-August for China which, thanks to a steadfast refusal to just float the yuan and be done with it, will have to continue selling USTs by the hundreds of billions, the world at large was slow to wake up to what China’s FX interventions actually implied until Wednesday when two things happened: i) Bloomberg, citing fixed income desks in New York, noted "substantial selling pressure" in long-term USTs emanating from somebody in the "Far East", and ii) Bill Gross asked, in a tweet, if China was selling Treasurys.Sure enough, on Thursday we got confirmation of what we’ve been detailing exhaustively for months. Here’s Bloomberg: China has cut its holdings of U.S. Treasuries this month to raise dollars needed to support the yuan in the wake of a shock devaluation two weeks ago, according to people familiar with the matter. Channels for such transactions include China selling directly, as well as through agents in Belgium and Switzerland, said one of the people, who declined to be identified as the information isn’t public. China has communicated with U.S. authorities about the sales, said another person. They didn’t reveal the size of the disposals.The latest available Treasury data and estimates by strategists suggest that China controls $1.48 trillion of U.S. government debt, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That includes about $200 billion held through Belgium, which Nomura Holdings Inc. says is home to Chinese custodial accounts.The PBOC has sold at least $106 billion of reserve assets in the last two weeks, including Treasuries, according to an estimate from Societe Generale SA. The figure was based on the bank’s calculation of how much liquidity will be added to China’s financial system through Tuesday’s reduction of interest rates and lenders’ reserve-requirement ratios. The assumption is that the central bank aims to replenish the funds it drained when it bought yuan to stabilize the currency.Now that what has been glaringly obvious for at least six months has been given the official mainstream stamp of fact-based approval, the all-clear has been given for rampant speculation on what exactly this means for US monetary policy. Here’s Bloomberg again:China selling Treasuries is “not a surprise, but possibly something which people haven’t fully priced in,” said Owen Callan, a Dublin-based fixed-income strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald LP. “It would change the outlook on Treasuries quite a bit if you started to price in a fairly large liquidation of their reserves over the next six months or so as they manage the yuan to whatever level they have in mind.”“By selling Treasuries to defend the renminbi, they’re preventing Treasury yields from going lower despite the fact that we’ve seen a sharp drop in the stock market,” David Woo, head of global rates and currencies research at Bank of America Corp., said on Bloomberg Television on Wednesday. “China has a direct impact on global markets through U.S. rates.”As we discussed on Wednesday evening, we do, thanks to a review of the extant academic literature undertaken by Citi, have an idea of what foreign FX reserve liquidation means for USTs. "Suppose EM and developing countries, which hold $5491 bn in reserves, reduce holdings by 10% over one year - this amounts to 3.07% of US GDP and means 10yr Treasury yields rates rise by a mammoth 108bp ," Citi said, in a note dated earlier this week.In other words, for every $500 billion in liquidated Chinese FX reserves, there's an attendant 108bps worth of upward pressure on the 10Y. Bear in mind here that thanks to the threat of a looming Fed rate hike and a litany of other factors including plunging commodity prices and idiosyncratic political risks, EM currencies are in free fall which means that it's not just China that's in the process of liquidating USD assets. The clear takeaway is that there's a substantial amount of upward pressure building for UST yields and that is a decisively undesirable situation for the Fed to find itself in going into September. On Wednesday we summed the situation up as follows: "one of the catalysts for the EM outflows is the looming Fed hike which, when taken together with the above, means that if the FOMC raises rates, they will almost surely accelerate the pressure on EM, triggering further FX reserve drawdowns (i.e. UST dumping), resulting in substantial upward pressure on yields and prompting an immediate policy reversal and perhaps even QE4."Well now that China's UST liquidation frenzy has reached a pace where it could no longer be swept under the rug and/or played down as inconsequential, and now that Bill Dudley has officially opened the door for "additional quantitative easing", it would appear that the only way to prevent China and EM UST liquidation from, as Citi puts it, "choking off the US housing market," and exerting a kind of forced tightening via the UST transmission channel, will be for the FOMC to usher in QE4.
What China's Treasury Liquidation Means: $1 Trillion QE In Reverse-Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/28/2015 03:45 -0400-zero hedge
Earlier today, Bloomberg - citing the ubiquitous "people familiar with the matter" - confirmed what we’ve been pounding the table on for months; namely that China is liquidating its UST holdings.As we outlined in July, from the first of the year through June, China looked to have sold somewhere around $107 billion worth of US paper. While that might have seemed like a breakneck pace back then, it was nothing compared to what would transpire in the last two weeks of August. Following the devaluation of the yuan, the PBoC found itself in the awkward position of having to intervene openly in the FX market, despite the fact that the new currency regime was supposed to represent a shift towards a more market-determined exchange rate. That intervention has come at a steep cost - around $106 billion according to Soc Gen. In other words, stabilizing the yuan in the wake of the devaluation has resulted in the sale of more than $100 billion in USTs from China’s FX reserves. That dramatic drawdown has an equal and opposite effect on liquidity. That is, it serves to tighten money markets, thus working at cross purposes with policy rate cuts. The result: each FX intervention (i.e. each round of UST liquidation) must be offset with either an RRR cut, or with emergency liquidity injections via hundreds of billions in reverse repos and short- and medium-term lending ops.It appears that all of the above is now better understood than it was a month ago, but what’s still not well understand is the impact this will have on the US economy and, by extension, on US monetary policy, and furthermore, there seems to be some confusion as to just how dramatic the Treasury liquidation might end up being.Recall that China’s move to devalue the yuan and this week’s subsequent benchmark lending rate cut have served to blow up one of the world’s most popular carry trades. As one currency trader told Bloomberg on Tuesday, "it’s a terrible time to be long carry, increased volatility -- which I think we’ll stay with -- will continue to be terrible for carry. The period is over for carry trades."Here's a look at how a rules-based carry strategy designed to capture yield differences would have fared in the universe of G10 CCYs (note the blow ups around the SNB's franc shocker and the yuan deval):In short, the music stopped on August 11 and to the extent that anyone was still dancing going into this week, the PBoC’s decision to cut the lending rate along with RRR buried the trade once and for all.Estimating the size of that trade should be a good indicator for just how expensive it will be - i.e. how much in Treasurys China will have to liquidate - to keep the yuan stable. The question, as BofAML puts it, is this: "can China afford the unwinding of carry trades?"The first step is estimating the total size of the trade. Although estimates vary, BofAML puts the figure at between $1 trillion and $1.1 trillion.As analyzed above, the size of RMB carry could be quite high and thus exert downward pressure on RMB. But the PBoC should have scope to defend its currency if necessary. The PBoC’s toolbox includes its $3.65tn FX reserves (at end-July), as well as measurements to tighten FX controls on individuals, corporate and banks, if necessary, including imposing stricter requirements on NOP, among others.That said, we doubt if the PBoC will persistently intervene as rapid decline of FX reserves undermines market confidence anyway and imposes challenges to the PBoC. Alternatively, the PBoC could impose stricter FX controls but that would be considered as a backward move of capital account opening up. Nevertheless, we believe the PBoC intervention will still have spillover effects on the market.In other words, if this entire $1 trillion trade gets unwound, China will need to offset the pressure by either i) draining its reserves, or ii) taking a big step backwards on capital account liberalization. The latter option would be bad news for Beijing’s efforts to liberalize markets and land the yuan in the SDR basket. Of course, as noted yesterday and as tipped by SocGen earlier this week, the liquidation of $1 trillion in FX reserves would put enormous pressure on domestic liquidity, tightening money markets meaningfully, and forcing the PBoC to cut RRR 10 times (assuming 50 bps intervals). As BofA notes, China can’t "afford another liquidity squeeze like June 2013 given very poor sentiment nowadays and China’s economic downturn."Putting the pieces together here - and here is the critically important takeaway - we know that the size of the RMB carry trade could be as high as $1.1 trillion. If that entire trade is unwound, it would require China to liquidate a commensurate amount of its reserves in order to keep control of the yuan - or else resort to FX controls. Here's the point: if China were to liquidate $1 trillion in reserves (i.e. USTs), it would effectively offset 60% of QE3.Furthermore, based on Citi's review of the academic literature which shows that for every $500 billion in EM reserves liquidated, the yield on the US 10Y rises 108bps, if the PBoC were to use its reserves to offset a hypothetical unwind of the entire RMB carry trade, it would put around 200 bps of upward pressure on 10Y yields.So in effect, China's UST dumping is QE in reverse - and on a massive scale. Facing this kind of pressure the FOMC will at the very least need to exercise an exorbitant amount of caution before tightening policy and at the most, embark on another round of asset purchases lest China's devaluation and attendant FX interventions should be allowed to decimate whatever part of the US "recovery" is actually real.
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CHINA DEVALUES CURRENCY FOR AMERICAN INTEREST RATE RISE SPECULATION
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HOARDING OF GOLD AND SILVER
JAMES 5:1-3
1 Go to now, ye rich men, weep and howl for your miseries that shall come upon you.
2 Your riches are corrupted, and your garments are motheaten.
3 Your gold and silver is cankered; and the rust of them shall be a witness against you, and shall eat your flesh as it were fire. Ye have heaped treasure together for the last days.
REVELATION 18:10,17,19
10 Standing afar off for the fear of her torment, saying, Alas, alas that great city Babylon, that mighty city! for in one hour is thy judgment come.(IN 1 HR THE STOCK MARKETS WORLDWIDE WILL CRASH)
17 For in one hour so great riches is come to nought. And every shipmaster, and all the company in ships, and sailors, and as many as trade by sea, stood afar off,
19 And they cast dust on their heads, and cried, weeping and wailing, saying, Alas, alas that great city, wherein were made rich all that had ships in the sea by reason of her costliness! for in one hour is she made desolate.
EZEKIEL 7:19
19 They shall cast their silver in the streets, and their gold shall be removed:(CONFISCATED) their silver and their gold shall not be able to deliver them in the day of the wrath of the LORD: they shall not satisfy their souls, neither fill their bowels: because it is the stumblingblock of their iniquity.
LUKE 2:1-3
1 And it came to pass in those days, that there went out a decree from Caesar Augustus, that all the world should be taxed.
2 (And this taxing was first made when Cyrenius was governor of Syria.)
3 And all went to be taxed, every one into his own city.
REVELATION 13:16-18
16 And he(THE FALSE POPE WHO DEFECTED FROM THE CHRISTIAN FAITH) causeth all,(IN THE WORLD ) both small and great, rich and poor, free and bond, to receive a mark in their right hand, or in their foreheads:(MICROCHIP IMPLANT)
17 And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark,(MICROCHIP IMPLANT) or the name of the beast,(WORLD DICTATORS NAME INGRAVED ON YOUR SKIN OR TATTOOED ON YOU OR IN THE MICROCHIP IMPLANT) or the number of his name.(THE NUMBERS OF HIS NAME INGRAVED IN THE MICROCHIP IMLPLANT)-(ALL THESE WILL TELL THE WORLD DICTATOR THAT YOUR WITH HIM AND AGAINST KING JESUS-GOD)
18 Here is wisdom. Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast:(WORLD LEADER) for it is the number of a man; and his number is Six hundred threescore and six.(6-6-6) A NUMBER SYSTEM (6006006)OR(60020202006)(SOME KIND OF NUMBER IMPLANTED IN THE MICROCHIP THAT TELLS THE WORLD DICTATOR AND THE NEW WORLD ORDER THAT YOU GIVE YOUR TOTAL ALLIGIENCE TO HIM AND NOT JESUS)(ITS AN ETERNAL DECISION YOU MAKE)(YOU CHOOSE YOUR OWN DESTINY)(YOU TAKE THE DICTATORS NAME OR NUMBER UNDER YOUR SKIN,YOUR DOOMED TO THE LAKE OF FIRE AND TORMENTS FOREVER,NEVER ENDING MEANT ONLY FOR SATAN AND HIS ANGELS,NOT HUMAN BEINGS).OR YOU REFUSE THE MICROCHIP IMPLANT AND GO ON THE SIDE OF KING JESUS AND RULE FOREVER WITH HIM ON EARTH.YOU CHOOSE,ITS YOUR DECISION.
REVELATION 6:5-6
5 And when he had opened the third seal, I heard the third beast say, Come and see. And I beheld, and lo a black horse; and he that sat on him had a pair of balances in his hand.
6 And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine.(A DAYS WAGES FOR A LOAF OF BREAD)
DOCTOR DOCTORIAN FROM ANGEL OF GOD
then the angel said, Financial crisis will come to Asia. I will shake the world.
The Shemitah is coming true.Do people not get it? There is a economic crash every 7 years.
1980: Recession
1987: Stock market crash
1994: Bond market crash
2001: 9/11, dot com, recession
2008: Housing crash
2015: See if something will happen-The central banks will be the death of us. Get ready and embrace yourself for the economic collapse.
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Islamic State Flips Gold Coins to Break Fed `Enslavement'-Zaid Sabah Caroline Alexander-Updated on August 30, 2015 — 2:34 AM EDT-BLOOMBERG
Forget the printing press. In readying for the rollout of Islamic State’s new money, goldsmiths and silver smelters have been toiling away.The jihadist group on Saturday touted “the return of the gold dinar” in an hour-long video issued by its media wing, al Hayat. Islamic State’s policy-making Shura Council last year tasked its Beit al Mal, or treasury, with minting the coins, which come in several denominations made of gold, silver and copper.The currency is meant to break the shackles of “the capitalist financial system of enslavement, underpinned by a piece of paper called the Federal Reserve dollar note,” the group said in the video. It didn’t explain where the coins were being minted, nor how they’ll be distributed or replace currencies circulating in the territory the group occupies in parts of Iraq and Syria.Islamic State first announced its intention to issue its own money in November, five months after it seized the northern Iraqi city of Mosul and its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi announced a caliphate. The move was seen by analysts as part of the group’s efforts to build the institutions of a functioning state.The jihadists have amassed a war chest of millions of dollars, partly through collecting taxes, and by seizing oil refineries. Bank and jewelry store robberies, extortion, smuggling and kidnapping for ransom are other important sources of revenue for the group, which metes out brutal punishment to anyone who opposes its rule, including beheadings and crucifixions.-Morale Booster-Baghdad-based economist Basim Jameel said the announcement is an attempt to boost the morale of Islamic State fighters, who have suffered battlefield setbacks in recent months, including the loss of Tikrit in March.Minting the coins is relatively easy, Jameel said, as goldsmiths in Mosul imported machines from Italy in recent years, each one able to produce about 5,000 coins a day. The metals probably come from banks the group seized, ransoms, the homes of Christians and other minorities who fled, he said.In the video, Islamic State refers to Caliph Abd al Malik ibn Marwan, who introduced the first Arabic-script coinage of the Islamic empire, free of figural representation, in around 696 AD.The group said its 21-carat 1-dinar coin weighs 4.25 grams, while the 21-carat five-dinar coin weighs double that. Three dominations of silver dirhams and two of copper coins were minted for smaller transactions, it said.-Exchange Rate?-Each coin bears an inscription that reads, “The Islamic State, a caliphate based on the doctrine of prophecy.” The 1-dinar coin also shows seven stalks of wheat, which the group said is meant to represent “the blessing of spending in the path of Allah.” The five-dinar coin bears the image of a map of the world.Oil, the group said in the video, will now only be sold for gold.The Pentagon said in February that illicit oil sales are no longer the main source of funding for the group. A U.S.-led bombing campaign that began last summer reduced the number of fields under its control and several neighbors, including Turkey and Kurdistan, have cracked down on smuggling routes.Residents interviewed by phone from Mosul and Ramadi, the western Iraqi city captured by Islamic State in May, said so far they hadn’t seen any coins, received details of how the currency swap would work, or been told what the prevailing exchange rate might be. They said families have been preparing for this moment for some time.One Mosul resident, who asked not to be identified, said his family and others will exchange a certain amount of old money into the new Islamic State currency to pay household expenses. Some will keep back a portion of the old currency to exchange into dollars in areas that remain under government control, he said.Because Islamic State is classified as a terrorist group, the coins can’t be traded legally.“They’ll only be used in these areas and people will only buy these coins for their daily needs and expenses,” said the economist Jameel.“Nobody outside their control will accept the currency and I don’t know how they’ll keep up with demand, as they are losing resources day after day,” he said. “At the end of the day, this is a media propaganda tool.”
China Premier Li Says No Basis for Yuan’s Continued Depreciation-Bloomberg News-August 29, 2015 — 9:03 PM EDT
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said there was no basis for a continued depreciation of the yuan after the central bank allowed the currency to devalue 2.8 percent this month.The yuan can remain “basically” stable on a “reasonable and equilibrium level,” said Li, according to a statement posted on the State Council’s website Saturday. Li made the comments at a state council meeting on Friday.The assurances came after the central bank on Aug. 25 cut interest rates for the fifth time since November and lowered the amount of cash banks must set aside to stem the biggest stock-market rout since 1996. Deflation risks, over-capacity and a debt overhang remain a cloud over the Chinese economy, which is forecast for its slowest expansion since 1990.China will continue to carry out proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy and will use “more precise” measures to cope with downward pressure on the economy, said Li in the statement. The government will prevent regional and systematic risks, according to the statement.Policy makers want to stabilize Chinese shares before a Sept. 3 military parade celebrating the 70th anniversary of the World War II victory over Japan, two people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified because the intervention wasn’t publicly announced, said Thursday.The Shanghai Composite Index rallied 4.8 percent to 3,232.35 at Friday’s close, following a more than 5 percent surge in the final hour of trading on Thursday. The gauge is still down 37 percent from its June high.The yuan in Shanghai climbed as much as 0.33 percent on Friday, its biggest intra-day gain since March 19, before closing 0.26 percent stronger at 6.3885 per dollar.
If the Options Market Is Right, China's Stock Rescue Is Doomed-Kana Nishizawa-August 30, 2015 — 12:00 PM EDT-bloomberg
Options traders have never been so pessimistic on China’s stock market, betting the government’s renewed effort to prop up share prices is doomed to fail.The cost of bearish contracts on the China 50 exchange-traded fund surged to the highest level versus bullish ones since they started trading in Shanghai six months ago. The so-called skew also climbed to a record for a similar ETF in the U.S., even as government buying drove China’s benchmark index to a 10 percent rally in the final two days of last week.While policy makers are trying to bolster the market before President Xi Jinping takes the stage in a World War II victory parade this week, bears argue that valuations are too high for the rally to last. Chinese investors have about 5 trillion yuan ($783 billion) of borrowed money riding on stocks, and many of them are looking for a chance to exit, according to Bank of America Corp.“More and more people are not convinced about A shares,” said Tony Chu, a Hong Kong-based money manager at RS Investment Management Co., which oversees about $20 billion. “Ultimately, the government needs to reduce intervention and let more de-leveraging happen.”Puts that pay out on a 10 percent drop in the China 50 ETF cost 7 points more on Friday than calls betting on a 10 percent gain, according to implied volatility data on one-month contracts. As recently as Aug. 24, the bullish contracts were more expensive. For the U.S.-listed Deutsche X-trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF, the skew reached a record 38 points on Aug. 27 and closed the week at 28 points.Chinese policy actions last week suggest authorities are intent on putting a floor under share prices. On Tuesday, the central bank announced its fifth interest-rate cut since November and reduced the amount of cash banks must set aside for reserves. State buying on Thursday propelled the Shanghai Composite to a rally of more than 5 percent in the final hour of trading, according to people familiar with the matter, an advance that extended into a 4.8 percent gain on Friday.-‘Unstable Situation’-China’s intervention is part of a broader effort to ensure nothing detracts from the Sept. 3 parade, an event the government will use to demonstrate its rising military and political might. Authorities have also closed thousands of factories to curb pollution and ordered some vehicles off the road.For BofA strategist David Cui, equity valuations and earnings growth aren’t appealing enough to support the market in the absence of government buying.Equities on mainland bourses traded at a median of 53 times reported earnings last week. That’s the most among the 10 largest markets and more than twice the 19 multiple for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. Analysts have cut their 2015 profit estimates for Shanghai Composite companies by 8.8 percent this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.Cui is also worried about the impact of selling by leveraged investors. Margin loans tracked by Chinese exchanges have dropped by half from their June peak to about 1.1 trillion yuan, a figure that doesn’t take into account equity-backed debt extended by trust companies and other lenders.“That’s a very unstable situation,” said Cui, who estimates the Shanghai Composite needs to fall another 35 percent before shares become attractive. “The government will not support the market forever.”The $5 trillion tumble in share prices from mid-June through last Wednesday has damaged confidence so much that state buying isn’t enough to lure back investors, according to Kenny Tang, chief executive officer of Jun Yang Securities Co. in Hong Kong. It may take further cuts to borrowing costs and reserve requirements to convince funds to return, he said.The Deutsche X-trackers Harvest ETF ended last week down 6.2 percent at $32.70 in New York, extending its loss from a June record to more than 40 percent. The China 50 fund declined 4.7 percent.“The market sentiment is still quite volatile,” Tang said. “People are worried that after the rebound there will be some selling pressure.”
China Sells U.S. Treasuries to Support Yuan-Bloomberg News-Updated on August 27, 2015 — 6:11 AM EDT
China has cut its holdings of U.S. Treasuries this month to raise dollars needed to support the yuan in the wake of a shock devaluation two weeks ago, according to people familiar with the matter.Channels for such transactions include China selling directly, as well as through agents in Belgium and Switzerland, said one of the people, who declined to be identified as the information isn’t public. China has communicated with U.S. authorities about the sales, said another person. They didn’t reveal the size of the disposals.The People’s Bank of China has been offloading dollars and buying yuan to support the exchange rate, a policy that’s contributed to a $315 billion drop in its foreign-exchange reserves over the last 12 months. The $3.65 trillion stockpile will fall by some $40 billion a month in the remainder of 2015 because of the intervention, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.China selling Treasuries is “not a surprise, but possibly something which people haven’t fully priced in,” said Owen Callan, a Dublin-based fixed-income strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald LP. “It would change the outlook on Treasuries quite a bit if you started to price in a fairly large liquidation of their reserves over the next six months or so as they manage the yuan to whatever level they have in mind.”-Gross’s Tweet-The PBOC and the U.S. Embassy in Beijing didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. Bill Gross, who manages the $1.47 billion Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund, tweeted Wednesday “China selling long Treasuries ????”.Two-year Treasuries erased an earlier advance, with their yield little changed at 0.67 percent as of 11 a.m. in London. It fell as much as two basis points. The 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.15 percent, near to its average for the past month.Chinese sales of U.S. government debt may have kept yields from falling this month as a selloff in global stocks prompted investors to favor the safest assets.“By selling Treasuries to defend the renminbi, they’re preventing Treasury yields from going lower despite the fact that we’ve seen a sharp drop in the stock market,” David Woo, head of global rates and currencies research at Bank of America Corp., said on Bloomberg Television on Wednesday. “China has a direct impact on global markets through U.S. rates.”China Holdings-The latest available Treasury data and estimates by strategists suggest that China controls $1.48 trillion of U.S. government debt, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That includes about $200 billion held through Belgium, which Nomura Holdings Inc. says is home to Chinese custodial accounts.The PBOC has sold at least $106 billion of reserve assets in the last two weeks, including Treasuries, according to an estimate from Societe Generale SA. The figure was based on the bank’s calculation of how much liquidity will be added to China’s financial system through Tuesday’s reduction of interest rates and lenders’ reserve-requirement ratios. The assumption is that the central bank aims to replenish the funds it drained when it bought yuan to stabilize the currency.The yuan rose 0.08 percent to 6.4053 per dollar on Thursday in Shanghai, trimming this month’s decline to 3.1 percent. Daily fluctuations have averaged less than 0.1 percent in the past two weeks as the PBOC intervened to bring stability following the Aug. 11 devaluation. The nation’s Treasury holdings will stop falling once the intervention stops and the currency is freely floating, said Steve Wang, chief China economist at Reorient Financial Markets Ltd. in Hong Kong.“Strategically, it probably has been China’s intention to find the right time to lighten up its excessive accumulation of U.S. Treasuries,” he said.
It's Official: China Confirms It Has Begun Liquidating Treasuries, Warns Washington-Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/27/2015 23:27 -0400-Bank of America Bank of America Belgium Bill Dudley Bill Gross China fixed Housing Market Monetary Policy Nomura Quantitative Easing Renminbi Switzerland Yuan -zero hedge
On Tuesday evening, we asked what would happen if emerging markets joined China in dumping US Treasurys. For months we’ve documented the PBoC’s liquidation of its vast stack of US paper. Back in July for instance, we noted that China had dumped a record $143 billion in US Treasurys in three months via Belgium, leaving Goldman speechless for once.We followed all of this up this week by noting that thanks to the new FX regime (which, in theory anyway, should have required less intervention), China has likely sold somewhere on the order of $100 billion in US Treasurys in the past two weeks alone in open FX ops to steady the yuan. Put simply, as part of China's devaluation and subsequent attempts to contain said devaluation, China has been purging an epic amount of Treasurys.But even as the cat was out of the bag for Zero Hedge readers and even as, to mix colorful escape metaphors, the genie has been out of the bottle since mid-August for China which, thanks to a steadfast refusal to just float the yuan and be done with it, will have to continue selling USTs by the hundreds of billions, the world at large was slow to wake up to what China’s FX interventions actually implied until Wednesday when two things happened: i) Bloomberg, citing fixed income desks in New York, noted "substantial selling pressure" in long-term USTs emanating from somebody in the "Far East", and ii) Bill Gross asked, in a tweet, if China was selling Treasurys.Sure enough, on Thursday we got confirmation of what we’ve been detailing exhaustively for months. Here’s Bloomberg: China has cut its holdings of U.S. Treasuries this month to raise dollars needed to support the yuan in the wake of a shock devaluation two weeks ago, according to people familiar with the matter. Channels for such transactions include China selling directly, as well as through agents in Belgium and Switzerland, said one of the people, who declined to be identified as the information isn’t public. China has communicated with U.S. authorities about the sales, said another person. They didn’t reveal the size of the disposals.The latest available Treasury data and estimates by strategists suggest that China controls $1.48 trillion of U.S. government debt, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That includes about $200 billion held through Belgium, which Nomura Holdings Inc. says is home to Chinese custodial accounts.The PBOC has sold at least $106 billion of reserve assets in the last two weeks, including Treasuries, according to an estimate from Societe Generale SA. The figure was based on the bank’s calculation of how much liquidity will be added to China’s financial system through Tuesday’s reduction of interest rates and lenders’ reserve-requirement ratios. The assumption is that the central bank aims to replenish the funds it drained when it bought yuan to stabilize the currency.Now that what has been glaringly obvious for at least six months has been given the official mainstream stamp of fact-based approval, the all-clear has been given for rampant speculation on what exactly this means for US monetary policy. Here’s Bloomberg again:China selling Treasuries is “not a surprise, but possibly something which people haven’t fully priced in,” said Owen Callan, a Dublin-based fixed-income strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald LP. “It would change the outlook on Treasuries quite a bit if you started to price in a fairly large liquidation of their reserves over the next six months or so as they manage the yuan to whatever level they have in mind.”“By selling Treasuries to defend the renminbi, they’re preventing Treasury yields from going lower despite the fact that we’ve seen a sharp drop in the stock market,” David Woo, head of global rates and currencies research at Bank of America Corp., said on Bloomberg Television on Wednesday. “China has a direct impact on global markets through U.S. rates.”As we discussed on Wednesday evening, we do, thanks to a review of the extant academic literature undertaken by Citi, have an idea of what foreign FX reserve liquidation means for USTs. "Suppose EM and developing countries, which hold $5491 bn in reserves, reduce holdings by 10% over one year - this amounts to 3.07% of US GDP and means 10yr Treasury yields rates rise by a mammoth 108bp ," Citi said, in a note dated earlier this week.In other words, for every $500 billion in liquidated Chinese FX reserves, there's an attendant 108bps worth of upward pressure on the 10Y. Bear in mind here that thanks to the threat of a looming Fed rate hike and a litany of other factors including plunging commodity prices and idiosyncratic political risks, EM currencies are in free fall which means that it's not just China that's in the process of liquidating USD assets. The clear takeaway is that there's a substantial amount of upward pressure building for UST yields and that is a decisively undesirable situation for the Fed to find itself in going into September. On Wednesday we summed the situation up as follows: "one of the catalysts for the EM outflows is the looming Fed hike which, when taken together with the above, means that if the FOMC raises rates, they will almost surely accelerate the pressure on EM, triggering further FX reserve drawdowns (i.e. UST dumping), resulting in substantial upward pressure on yields and prompting an immediate policy reversal and perhaps even QE4."Well now that China's UST liquidation frenzy has reached a pace where it could no longer be swept under the rug and/or played down as inconsequential, and now that Bill Dudley has officially opened the door for "additional quantitative easing", it would appear that the only way to prevent China and EM UST liquidation from, as Citi puts it, "choking off the US housing market," and exerting a kind of forced tightening via the UST transmission channel, will be for the FOMC to usher in QE4.
What China's Treasury Liquidation Means: $1 Trillion QE In Reverse-Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/28/2015 03:45 -0400-zero hedge
Earlier today, Bloomberg - citing the ubiquitous "people familiar with the matter" - confirmed what we’ve been pounding the table on for months; namely that China is liquidating its UST holdings.As we outlined in July, from the first of the year through June, China looked to have sold somewhere around $107 billion worth of US paper. While that might have seemed like a breakneck pace back then, it was nothing compared to what would transpire in the last two weeks of August. Following the devaluation of the yuan, the PBoC found itself in the awkward position of having to intervene openly in the FX market, despite the fact that the new currency regime was supposed to represent a shift towards a more market-determined exchange rate. That intervention has come at a steep cost - around $106 billion according to Soc Gen. In other words, stabilizing the yuan in the wake of the devaluation has resulted in the sale of more than $100 billion in USTs from China’s FX reserves. That dramatic drawdown has an equal and opposite effect on liquidity. That is, it serves to tighten money markets, thus working at cross purposes with policy rate cuts. The result: each FX intervention (i.e. each round of UST liquidation) must be offset with either an RRR cut, or with emergency liquidity injections via hundreds of billions in reverse repos and short- and medium-term lending ops.It appears that all of the above is now better understood than it was a month ago, but what’s still not well understand is the impact this will have on the US economy and, by extension, on US monetary policy, and furthermore, there seems to be some confusion as to just how dramatic the Treasury liquidation might end up being.Recall that China’s move to devalue the yuan and this week’s subsequent benchmark lending rate cut have served to blow up one of the world’s most popular carry trades. As one currency trader told Bloomberg on Tuesday, "it’s a terrible time to be long carry, increased volatility -- which I think we’ll stay with -- will continue to be terrible for carry. The period is over for carry trades."Here's a look at how a rules-based carry strategy designed to capture yield differences would have fared in the universe of G10 CCYs (note the blow ups around the SNB's franc shocker and the yuan deval):In short, the music stopped on August 11 and to the extent that anyone was still dancing going into this week, the PBoC’s decision to cut the lending rate along with RRR buried the trade once and for all.Estimating the size of that trade should be a good indicator for just how expensive it will be - i.e. how much in Treasurys China will have to liquidate - to keep the yuan stable. The question, as BofAML puts it, is this: "can China afford the unwinding of carry trades?"The first step is estimating the total size of the trade. Although estimates vary, BofAML puts the figure at between $1 trillion and $1.1 trillion.As analyzed above, the size of RMB carry could be quite high and thus exert downward pressure on RMB. But the PBoC should have scope to defend its currency if necessary. The PBoC’s toolbox includes its $3.65tn FX reserves (at end-July), as well as measurements to tighten FX controls on individuals, corporate and banks, if necessary, including imposing stricter requirements on NOP, among others.That said, we doubt if the PBoC will persistently intervene as rapid decline of FX reserves undermines market confidence anyway and imposes challenges to the PBoC. Alternatively, the PBoC could impose stricter FX controls but that would be considered as a backward move of capital account opening up. Nevertheless, we believe the PBoC intervention will still have spillover effects on the market.In other words, if this entire $1 trillion trade gets unwound, China will need to offset the pressure by either i) draining its reserves, or ii) taking a big step backwards on capital account liberalization. The latter option would be bad news for Beijing’s efforts to liberalize markets and land the yuan in the SDR basket. Of course, as noted yesterday and as tipped by SocGen earlier this week, the liquidation of $1 trillion in FX reserves would put enormous pressure on domestic liquidity, tightening money markets meaningfully, and forcing the PBoC to cut RRR 10 times (assuming 50 bps intervals). As BofA notes, China can’t "afford another liquidity squeeze like June 2013 given very poor sentiment nowadays and China’s economic downturn."Putting the pieces together here - and here is the critically important takeaway - we know that the size of the RMB carry trade could be as high as $1.1 trillion. If that entire trade is unwound, it would require China to liquidate a commensurate amount of its reserves in order to keep control of the yuan - or else resort to FX controls. Here's the point: if China were to liquidate $1 trillion in reserves (i.e. USTs), it would effectively offset 60% of QE3.Furthermore, based on Citi's review of the academic literature which shows that for every $500 billion in EM reserves liquidated, the yield on the US 10Y rises 108bps, if the PBoC were to use its reserves to offset a hypothetical unwind of the entire RMB carry trade, it would put around 200 bps of upward pressure on 10Y yields.So in effect, China's UST dumping is QE in reverse - and on a massive scale. Facing this kind of pressure the FOMC will at the very least need to exercise an exorbitant amount of caution before tightening policy and at the most, embark on another round of asset purchases lest China's devaluation and attendant FX interventions should be allowed to decimate whatever part of the US "recovery" is actually real.
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